Gamemath

A statistical reading room
Australia · en-AU

Contents

06 / Interpreting labels

Ask what was counted.

Return, spread and frequency answer different questions. A label without its measurement rule cannot tell you what a session will do.

Definitions before adjectives

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Volatility is about spread

Technical reference — Great Britain. UK Gambling Commission technical terminology describes volatility as the spread or variation in game results, commonly represented by standard deviation. That is distinct from the mean theoretical RTP: identical averages can accompany different patterns of individual outcomes. This GB technical reference does not establish an Australian label or scale.

Technical reference — Great Britain. UK Gambling Commission, Key terms relating to live RTP performance monitoring of games (updated 28 January 2021). The cited source does not set a universal low/medium/high volatility scale for consumer labels here.

Ask what was measured and how: a descriptor such as “high volatility” without the underlying distribution, a stated metric and its comparison set is not a session forecast. The invented A/B comparison demonstrates different prize patterns with the same expected RTP, without assigning either game a marketing category.

“Hit” needs a threshold

If someone supplies a “hit frequency”, ask whether a hit means any prize, a prize larger than the stake, or some other event, and what set of plays supplies the denominator. Do not assume that a comparable hit-frequency figure is available for every Australian product; the sources used here do not establish a standard Australian disclosure of it.

Mathematical illustration from the invented $1-stake games on the distributions page; per-play model probabilities, not observed Australian figures. On narrow screens, scroll sideways to read all columns.
Counted eventGame AGame B
Any prize90% ($1 prize)10% ($9 prize)
Prize greater than $1 stake0% ($1 only returns stake)10% ($9 is $8 above stake)
Expected prizes ÷ stake$0.90 ÷ $1 = 90%$0.90 ÷ $1 = 90%

Australian context GambleAware NSW, Poker machines (undated) notes that a payout smaller than the stake is a net loss. The table is original hypothetical arithmetic; the NSW page is not its source of probabilities.

Check the denominator and the time

  1. 01
    Is this designed or observed?

    Theoretical RTP is a design average; an observed ratio needs actual prizes and stakes for a specified set of plays.

  2. 02
    What counts as “winning”?

    A returned stake is a prize but not a net gain; a smaller prize leaves a net loss on that play.

  3. 03
    What jurisdiction and source?

    Do not import a Great Britain technical term as an Australian legal requirement. Check the date and scope of the cited source.

Technical reference — Great Britain. UK Gambling Commission, Key terms relating to live RTP performance monitoring of games (updated 28 January 2021) distinguishes theoretical and actual RTP. This is a technical reference, not an Australian rule.