Gamemath

A statistical reading room
Australia · en-AU

Contents

05 / Sequence & design

Nothing is owed by a streak.

When plays are independent, the past does not change the next play's probability. That statement needs its design condition attached.

A conditional claim about independent random plays

Not a prediction of the next outcome

The due-win error

For the independent random spins described in Australian poker-machine guidance, earlier losses do not increase the chance of a prize on the next spin. The same is true after earlier wins: the sequence does not change the next independent outcome. “It has to pay soon” is not a consequence of a long-run theoretical return.

Australian guidance VGCCC, Understanding poker machines (updated 1 June 2026) and VGCCC, Myths and misconceptions about winning (updated 24 February 2026) describe independent spins. GambleAware NSW, Poker machines (undated) also describes independent plays.

Hypothetical model B
In the invented Game B, each $1 play pays $9 with probability 10%. If plays are independent, that 10% remains 10% after any earlier run of $0 results. It is not a recommendation to try another play; the next outcome could still be $0.

Separate glass forms on individual unmarked sheets, with no connecting path
Conceptual still life — not evidence of a game's mechanism. Independence is the condition explained above, not a prediction.

Do not erase the design caveat

Technical reference — Great Britain. The UK Gambling Commission describes compensated gaming machines in Great Britain whose chance of a prize can depend on earlier play. That design exception qualifies a blanket claim that every game in every jurisdiction is independent. It is not evidence that Australian poker machines use this GB design or that a streak predicts an Australian result.

Technical reference — Great Britain. UK Gambling Commission, Return to player — how much gaming machines payout (updated 16 June 2021): long-run averages across significant game plays and the history-dependent compensated-machine exception. GB context only; not Australian regulation.

Ask which type of game and which jurisdiction a statement actually describes. For the independent random plays discussed in the Australian sources above, a shortfall in earlier prizes creates no “catch-up” obligation for the next play.