Gamemath

A statistical reading room
Australia · en-AU

Contents

01 / Claim register

A percentage is not a promise.

Game return figures describe a design or a set of recorded plays. Neither is a forecast for the next person, the next spin, or tonight.

Read the denominator before the headline number.

Noncommercial · no game recommendations

The register

Use these as questions for a claim, not rules for choosing a game. A percentage needs a numerator, a denominator, a time horizon and a definition of what counts as a payout.

  1. 01
    “90% back” does not mean 90 cents back from each dollar.

    A theoretical return describes a designed long-run fraction across many plays, not an individual dollar. Inspect the denominator →

    Australian context VGCCC, Understanding poker machines (updated 1 June 2026) says theoretical return does not apply to an individual session.

  2. 02
    A short session need not look like the design figure.

    An observed return divides the prizes in a chosen set of plays by stakes in that same set. Read a sample ledger →

    Technical reference — Great Britain. UK Gambling Commission, How to calculate RTP (updated 25 January 2021) defines an observed ratio; not an Australian rule.

  3. 03
    The same average can hide different payout patterns.

    Two invented games both return 90 cents in expected prizes per $1 stake, but one pays its stake often and one pays more rarely. Compare the patterns →

  4. 04
    Earlier losses do not make an independent next play due.

    For the independent random spins described in Australian guidance, the next result is not owed by the sequence so far. Check the caveat →

    Australian guidance VGCCC, Myths and misconceptions about winning (updated 24 February 2026) describes independent spins in Victoria.

  5. 05
    A payout is not necessarily a profit.

    “Any prize”, “prize larger than stake” and “return over all stakes” count different things. Question the labels →

    NSW guidance GambleAware NSW, Poker machines (undated) notes that a prize smaller than the stake is a net loss.

Blank paper and translucent shapes arranged as a quiet study of uncertainty
Conceptual still life — not numerical evidence. The register above keeps each claim beside its qualification.

A limit, not a loophole

These pages explain published terms and hypothetical arithmetic. They do not evaluate particular products or supply a method for beating random outcomes. Where a technical definition comes from a Great Britain source, the page says so at the point of use; it does not imply that Great Britain’s rules govern Australian games.